Iran, Hezbollah, Iraq, and the Shia Middle Eastern alliance
When Lebanon comes to mind, the "issue" of Hezbollah and foreign interference in the country are of hottest controversies.Recently with the suspicious assassination of Hariri, Lebanese have come to the streets demanding Syrian withdrawl and end to foreign interference. All the mystery sorrounding the assassination, the american administration backed quietly by israel took advantage and stepped up their threats and pressured Syria into withdrawl with a U.N. sponsored resolution. Recently america, with U.N. resolution, demanded Hezbollah to disarm. But the election in Lebanon proved that Hezbollah will be a force to be reckoned with.
Hezbollah was formed by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Gaurds in 1982 in response to Israeli invasion of Lebanon. It was one of the few success stories of the Iranian revolution, as Hezbollah were one of the Islamic Republic's exports. Formed by ideology of Shia Islam, Hezbollah brought Shia Lebanese Muslims from worthless bunch living in slums to heroes and martyrs. Hezbollah were the only group to impose defeat on the Israeli army, not surprisingly they are labeled by both america and Israel as "terrorists". hmm, according to them who ever fights to free his or her land from foreign aggression is a terrorists. Leave that thought for now.
Iran with Syria have provided Hezbollah with arms, money, and political support. Even the Lebanese anti-Syrian politicians recognize Hezbollah's right to exist and it's potential. A resistance force is what Lebanese and most Middle Easterners call them. Hezbollah is indeed a key Iranian ally, an ally the Iranian people should not led go anytime soon, even if the Mullah's in Iran were out of power.
Also don't you find it ironic how america suddenly supported Lebanese taking to the streets to denounce Syria's troops and get their freedom? the same time americans faced Iraqis in Fallujah who peacefully protested their presence. What did americans do? shot at the crowd, killing more than a dozen. When the Fallujans took revenge and responded, telling america is not welcome in their country, almost same thing Lebanese did only violently this time, what did americans do? They levelled the whole city, brutally massacaring thousands, and leaving many more homeless in refugee camps. I never forget what the american commander said, "We are fighting Satan out there", I laughed my butt off but in the same time prayed for Iraq. But the americans dont dare to do to the Shia's of Iraq what they did to the Sunnis. Why?
Because they know who's the real new boss in middle east now, not america, not Israel, yes IRAN. Surprisingly Shia power rose dramtically, Shias in Iraq hold key positions, Hezbollah in Lebanon are keeping their arms and no one can force them not to. Iran's allies in Iraq, the Mehdi Army and the Badr's Brigades, are like Hezbollah: keeping america and Israel in check, incase any aggression against Iran and its interests are taken. As a senior Iraqi official put it, "Iran could make Iraq a hell for americans if it wanted to". This really scares the Sunni arab countries particularly Saudi Arabia and Jordan. Iran now has formed a great alliance in middle east, from Iran to Iraq to Syria (a non-Shia country) to Lebanon. What could change all this, military invasion of Iran, and thats what most fat-ass arab leaders want, deep down inside. But if that happens, Hezbollah will escalate the war by attacking Israel, thus inviting all arab nations into war. This scenario is highly unlikely since american politicians are not that dumb to start another war.
This group is Iran's key to power in Middle East, and no Iranian leader, let it be democrat or theocrat, should let go and succumb to american demands. If we do, Shia Islam population will fall into decline again because of heavy Sunni interference from Saudi Arabia and Jordan. Iran will also fall into another weak state. This should all be taken and observed carefully in order to make the most for Iranian interests if we want to compete and survive in this new world order of aggression and terrorism.
I, for one, find a weak Iran unacceptable specialy in this modern age. If friendship with america means give away our independence, our regional dominance, then forget it. After all getting america and foreigners out of Middle East is our prime duty since most of arab nations are too weak to do so. Im not saying war is the answer, politics is a complex world, war is not always the best solution. In fact leave war out of this.
posted by Iranian Pride @ 1:26 AM
3 Comments:
Let's get things a bit in perspective:
Iran is the 21st economy (total size=GDP) in the World, Taiwan for example is nr. 19, with about 1/3 of the population Iran has.
When it comes to income per person (GDP per capita) Iran is nr. 98. sharing it's place with Romania.
It's becomes even more troubling if you consider the fact that Irans export consists for about 80% of oil. Without the coincidence of having huge natural resources Iran would probally look more like Somalia.
Now don't be offended, a country without natural resources doesn't have to be a poor country. Japan has no resources whatsoever. Nonetheless it's nr.5 of the largest economies in the world. Another nice example is Venice which even had to import it's drinking water. What do you think, would Iran be able to exist without it's oil and gas?
And what do you expect from the future, are you aware of the rise of China, already the third economy in the world.
Or India, now number 6?
While the Middle East is obsessed with the USA, probally even blaiming a rainey day on Americain and Jewisch conspiracy's, it's being surpassed by allmost all countries except a few Africain states.
And why are people in the Middle East so obsessed with religion, all this worshipping doesn't really pay-off, now does it?
In fact, I don't even know what kind of religion the Chinese have. Maybe thats why China is succesfull, they are not religious, but ambitious!
Both the E.U. and the USA will be able to defend their interests in a future world dominated by East Asia. Will Iran be able to defend its intersts? or will any of those other countries in the Middle East be able to? I think China will have a lot less consideration with all the pecularities of the Middle East. But maybe Iran will be able to get along with China better then with "The West", I wouldn't count on it, but that's up to the Iranians.
But for a country like Iran, isolated, onpopulair, without worthwhile friends (would you call Syria a friend??? well good luck to you)it might be more wise to play it's cards more carefully.
Best wishes, Amrit.
It seems to me that Iran will do fine as China's power increases. China has normal relations with Iran and no interest in propping up its own mideast apartheid state.
Geee, is the "anti-zionist, anti-american" meme so strong in the ME, that even democracy-supporting people buy so much into it?
I agree with Amrit. Good luck to you anyway.
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